Not just what’s on. What threatens you.
One question, asked of every show in your city on your night: would this take your audience?
What you get back
Nothing that night competes for your crowd.
Something real is on. Bookable, but you are splitting an audience.
A direct competitor for your exact people. Expect it in your sales.
Three things decide it
How big the competing show is next to yours, how close its crowd is to yours, and whether it is even on at the same time. Multiplied together, out of 100.
And a floor, for anything big enough
Genre alone would call a cup final harmless: football weighs 0.1 against a techno night. So we also ask how big an event is for this city, and take whichever of the two is higher.
The rank is PredictHQ’s. A 0–100 measure of an event’s impact on its local area, so the same crowd counts for more in a smaller city. Our current listings don’t carry it, so for now only the 50,000+ row applies; the ranked rows return with a source that ranks.
Where we draw the lines is ours. Nothing in that scale marks 95 as a boundary. We set them to bite only at the top — in Berlin, rank 75+ is the busiest 4% of events and 95+ the top 0.5% — and we have never checked whether a show opposite a rank-96 event actually sold worse. Reasoned, not measured.
Three real nights, one imaginary booking
Say you are booking a 500-capacity techno room, doors at 20:00. These are real listings from September 2026, scored against it.
Kinktastisch! Techno. Kink. Play
ThreatINSOMNIA, Berlin · 400 cap · Techno · 20:00
Smaller than your room, and the most dangerous thing on this page for you. It is aimed at exactly the people you are selling to.
Evanescence, Poppy, and Nova Twins
SafeVelodrom, Berlin · 7,685 cap · Rock · 17:00
Fifteen times your size and still Safe. A big room is not a threat if it is not your crowd — and this one empties out before your doors open.
Premier League — Manchester United v Manchester City
CriticalOld Trafford, Manchester · 73,748 cap · Football · 15:30
The three factors score this 7 — practically nothing. Only the floor catches it. A derby takes the city's evening whatever else is on, and this is the case the second layer exists for.
Why a band, not a number
The three factors are coarse: across 3,172 real listings the arithmetic landed on just 27 different values. A score out of 100 would imply a precision that is not there — so you get the band, and the show behind it.
What is deliberately left out
How many rivals there are
The band rates the worst single clash, so it cannot tell you how many there are. In Berlin last September, nights reading Threat ran from one competing show to nineteen — so we count them and show that next to the band.
Holidays
A public holiday does not compete for your audience, it changes whether there is one — and New Year’s Eve is the best night of the year or the worst depending on what you are booking. We show it and leave the judgement to you.
Check a date of your own
A city, a date, your genre and your room size. Free, no account needed.